‘Peak oil’ closer than we think, says IEA mole
Oil gushes from a well
Whistleblower say phoney oil figures are being used to avoid panic on markets
By Edward Helmore
FIRST POSTED NOVEMBER 10, 2009
Despite the discovery of massive new, untapped reserves, the world is much
closer to running out of oil than official estimates show, claims a
whistleblower at the International Energy Agency in the /Guardian/.
The unnamed source claims the US has been deliberately underplaying any
potential shortage and, in effect, the IEA's annual Energy Outlook, expected to
hold to previous estimates that oil production can be raised from its current
level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels, is effectively bogus.
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m
to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could
spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," the
paper was told. "And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it
would threaten their power over access to oil resources."
Another IEA source, rejecting the agency's 2008 World Energy Outlook that oil
output was "not expected to peak before 2030", said: "We have already entered
the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad."
There are ominous signs in the market. Last week oil surged to $82 a barrel.
Hardly the $140 mark it reach in August 2008 yet enough to affect a recovery.
With inventories full and demand weak, estimations abound that it could go to
$100 this winter.
Some analysts say the oil market is fundamentally over-supplied and cheap money
is distorting prices, as it is other asset classes. But some will certainly
argue that rising prices in the midst of a glut point to fundamental fears over
long-term supply.
The /Guardian/'s whistleblower claims a new "peak oil" is gaining support in the
energy establishment. Back in 2005, IEA claimed suppliers could pump 120m
barrels a day by 2030. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's
number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this."
So when do we leave the oil age and enter the post-carbon age? Probably no one
knows. A report by the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) last month said
worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into
terminal decline before 2020
.
Last night John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on
peak oil and gas, said: "IEA figures cannot be relied on."
