Climate change threatens millions of children with hunger
Geoffrey York
Johannesburg — From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2009
Malnutrition will strike another 25 million children in the world's poorest countries if climate change continues unabated, a new study says.
Africa and South Asia will be the hardest-hit regions as rising temperatures lead to lower crop yields and higher prices for basic food staples such as wheat, rice and maize, according to the study to be released Wednesday by the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Higher prices will force many to survive on less food. If nothing is done, the average person in sub-Saharan Africa will have 500 fewer calories per day by the year 2050, representing a 21 per cent decline, the Washington-based institute predicts.
“Continuing with a business-as-usual approach will almost certainly guarantee disastrous consequences,” the institute says.
The institute says its study is the first to combine a global agricultural model with detailed modelling of crop growth under climate change. The study will be included in two reports today by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, to be released during the latest round of climate negotiations, which began this week in Bangkok.
While the institute's projections are alarming, the true impact could be even worse. The study does not include other potentially damaging climate effects such as the loss of farmland as a result of rising sea levels, the increased variability of river flow as glaciers melt, the expected rise in pests and crop diseases, and the rising volatility of weather patterns.
Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to the expected change in the world's climate, since farming is so dependent on weather patterns, the institute says.
A few countries – such as Canada and Russia – could actually see an increase in their potential farmland because of global warming. But in Canada, poor quality soil could make it difficult to grow additional crops, even if the climate becomes more suitable.
“It's really hard to grow corn on rocks,” said Gerald Nelson, senior research fellow at the institute, when asked about the possibility of an expansion in Canada's farmland.
Even if climate change was not happening, global food prices would still be expected to increase in coming years. But climate change will make prices soar much higher. Global wheat prices, for example, will rise by nearly 200 per cent in the next four decades, compared with just 40 per cent if climate change was not happening, the study projects. The price of maize, a basic staple in Africa, will soar by about 150 per cent with climate change, compared with 60 per cent if the climate were to stay the same.
Crop yields, meanwhile, will drop by 15 to 30 per cent in irrigated rice and wheat fields in the developing world, the study predicts.
To avoid the worst effects of climate change, the world needs to spend more than $7-billion annually on improvements in agricultural productivity, such as new rural roads in Africa and better irrigation in Asia, the institute says.
The debate over how to adapt to climate change will be a key issue in the climate negotiations that culminate in Copenhagen in December. A coalition of African countries is already calling for $67-billion in annual spending to counteract the effects of drought and rising sea levels caused by climate change. Sub-Saharan Africa has 12 per cent of the world's population, yet it generates only 2 per cent of the world's greenhouse gases and will be hurt disproportionately by climate change.
The climate negotiations are seeking a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. But many analysts say there is a serious risk that the negotiators will fail to reach a deal by the December deadline.
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