EIA sees huge oil hike by 2035
Oil production is set to soar by nearly 27 million barrels a day to meet booming demand from mainly non-OECD countries by 2035, the US Energy Information Administration claimed on Monday.
Eoin O'Cinneide
19 September 2011
Upstream Online
Iran and Qatar are also set to take centre stage in a jump in natural gas production in the next quarter of a century with the Middle East and Australia weighing-in heavily with increased LNG supply.
In its International Energy Outlook 2011 released on Monday, the EIA said that global energy consumption is set to grow 53% between 2008 and 2035 with much of this growth outside the OECD stable where demand is driven by stronger long-term economic growth fundamentals.
Non-OECD energy consumption is set to balloon 85% in the period with growth in the OECD sphere projected to climb a much more modest 18%.
Liquid hydrocarbon demand will shoot from 85.7 million barrels per day in 2008 to 97.6 million bpd in 2020 and again to 112.2 million bpd by 2035, the report claims. The vast majority, some 82%, of this increase will come from the transportation sector.
To meet such demand, liquids production is set to hike by 26.6 million bpd in the time frame with OPEC countries throwing in an extra 10.3 million bpd and non-OPEC players chipping in 7.1 million bpd.
Although fossil fuels will remain the energy staple going forward, the share of liquids in the energy mix will actually drop from 34% to 29% in the period between 2008 and 2035. This is due to projected high oil prices leading governments and companies to chase alternatives with renewable set to grow their share from 10% to 14%.
Unconventional oil resources are set to grow an average of 4.6% per year, rising from 3.9 million bpd in 2008 to 13.1 million bdp in 2035. This growth will mainly be fueled by Canadian oil sands plays as well as bio fuel projects in the US and Brazil and Venezuelan extra heavy oil plays which together will account for three quarters of the overall increase.
On the gas side consumption is set to climb 52% from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cbf in 2035 with the major increase in production being led by non-OECD, Middle Eastern, African, Eurasian and former Soviet Union countries as well as Russia. Iran and Qatar together are likely to account for 20% of the overall increase.
There will also be a substantial increase in unconventional gas plays with the US, Canada and China leading the way, while LNG production will be ramped up in the Middle East and Australia in particular.
