The Peak Oil Crisis: Load shedding
by Tom Whipple
Fall Church News-Press (March 27 2008)
Largely unnoticed in America are the increasingly frequent electricity
shortages developing around the world.
Many of these are caused by shifting weather patterns that are leaving
hydro-electric dams with insufficient water to produce at full capacity.
While some aspects of global climate change are temporary, many, such as
the melting of glaciers, seem destined to last for decades, or perhaps
centuries, thereby depriving the world of some of the best sources of
cheap, renewable electric energy.
Thermal power production across the globe is struggling to cope with
high prices and shortages of coal, fuel oil and diesel. Several poorer
countries have shut down the bulk of their generation capacity as they
are no longer able to pay the fuel bills to keep going.
Then there is the inexorable growth of the world's population - 77
million more of us each year. While not all the new born get instant
access to the wondrous benefits of electric power, enough do to keep
demand rising and rising. Of yet more significance is the rapid economic
growth of China, the subcontinent, oil exporting states and lots of
other places. With new-found wealth comes the demand for more and more
electricity for lights, appliances, heating, cooling and a myriad of
power-consuming devices that we in America and the other OECD countries
adopted decades ago. There simply is not enough investment in new plants
and distribution networks to keep up with surging demand.
A few places in the world have active insurgencies. Iraq, Afghanistan
and Nigeria immediately come to mind, for insurgents just love to blow
up their local electric power infrastructure. There are very few things
an insurgent can do that will get everybody mad at the government
quicker than shutting off the power.
Energy shortages are now so frequent across the world there is a new web
site, www.energyshortage.org, devoted to keeping track of them all.
There are currently 96 different places in the world that have reported
some form of energy shortages in recent months. These range from large
areas of China, through the sub continent to small South Pacific islands
such as Saipan and the Marianas that have not been heard from much since
World War II.
Nearly every government in the world has announced plans for more
electricity production. Most would like nuclear power plants that would,
in theory, free them from the vagaries of hydro power and the steadily
increasing prices of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, most of these plans
have no foundation in reality, for unless the country is a wealthy one,
the rapidly increasing prices of major projects such as oil refineries
and power plants, particularly of the nuclear variety, are going to
become prohibitively costly very soon. As for nuclear power stations, it
is almost certain those few countries that have the capability to design
and build them are going to be preoccupied for decades with building
them for their domestic market or the ultra-rich oil exporters.
In addition to the many hardships that billions of people around the
world are going to be facing in the next few years as load shedding
(rolling blackouts) of lengthening duration become more common, are the
numerous repercussions of this phenomenon in the developed counties
where the lights are likely to stay on for a while longer.
Political instability is going to be at the head of the problem list.
Despite the $5 billion the US has spent to improve Iraq's electric
supply in recent years, a combination of increasing demand, insurgent
attacks and regional hoarding has reduced the electric supply in Baghdad
to a few hours a day. In Pakistan, where power shortages have already
shut down seventy percent of the textile factories, recent reporting
suggests the availability of electric power will continue to decline.
For many decades now, hundreds of millions of people have been moving
from rural areas into megacities where tens of millions have collected
in hopes of a better life. Keeping such massive collections of humanity
functioning takes at last a modicum of electricity for the logistics of
daily life. Megacities will soon be sorely tested.
A recent study points out that shortages of electricity are
"dramatically" curbing world metal production. Aluminum, which requires
massive amounts of electricity to produce, is at the top of the list
with the likelihood that world production will be cut by 800,000 tons
this year. South Africa, which produces much of the world's precious
metal supply, is facing many years of power shortages and has already
lost considerable production. There is more than speculation behind the
recent run-up in commodity prices.
Another phenomenon that should concern us here in the richer countries
is the rush to backup power as more and more of the world's power grids
are subjected to "rolling blackouts". Even the poorest countries now
have "modern sectors" of varying sizes where administrative and
financial work is carried out in office buildings with computers. For
these organizations, reliable electricity is essential. Small,
produce-it-yourself electricity generators are appearing around the
world by the millions - wherever they can be afforded.
In China and other better-off countries, no self-respecting factory
would be without the capability of generating its own electricity should
there be blackouts on the national grids. In some parts of the world,
the din of these machines has become part of the background of life.
Besides the increasing noise and air pollution, the downside is that
many of these are diesel powered, and there is a developing global
shortage of diesel fuel. Generation of electric power with small
internal combustion engines is expensive and highly inefficient. Until
the fuel becomes too expensive or is no longer available, small
generators are going to become increasing prevalent and will add
significant new pressures on the world's supply of liquid fuels.
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