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"Finding room for Canada"

Finding room for Canada
PM faces an uphill battle to gain the next president's ear, experts say

By CHRISTINA SPENCER, NATIONAL BUREAU

Imagine what it was like to be the American president in the year 2000.

The U.S. was not at war. It boasted a hefty budget surplus. Markets were stable and the average price of crude was under $30 US. The environment wasn't a political priority. Sept. 11 held no special significance.

Now, imagine the hailstorm of crises facing whichever man is elected president of the U.S. on Tuesday.

His nation is mired in not one, but two, wars. Security is an urgent concern. The budget deficit is a cavernous half-trillion dollars. Panic pounds the markets. And, oh yes, global warming is now seen as a serious threat.

That's the context for whatever happens next in Canada-U.S. relations, says Norman Hillmer, professor of history at Carleton University. Whether Barack Obama or John McCain wins the top prize, Canada has its work cut out influencing the crisis-packed agenda of the new president.

But that agenda will influence us -- particularly if Obama triumphs.

"He will be the most popular politician in the world -- he will dominate the headlines," Hillmer says. "It will be somewhat reminiscent of Kennedy -- the young, progressive, handsome knight in shining armour." And Stephen Harper, like other politicians, will want to be seen with him.

But Canada will have to leap the hurdle of Obama's "appalling lack of knowledge about Canada" to get attention for its issues, warns David T. Jones, a former minister-counsellor at the U.S. embassy in Ottawa.

In the meantime, we'll feel the impact of presidential policies in the following ways.

THE ECONOMY

There's a "real temptation" for a country with a weak economy to embrace protectionism, says Hillmer, and the Democrats, who are likely to dominate Congress as well as the presidency, are seen as more protectionist than Republicans. In addition, Obama has talked at different times about renegotiating parts of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

McCain is a less wobbly free trader. In fact, "one could see the McCain presidency reviving efforts to build the integration of the North American economy," writes former Canadian political operative Robin Sears in October's Policy Options magazine.

But many believe Obama, if elected, is unlikely to start tearing apart the successful trade accord Canada and the U.S. enjoy. He is, says Hillmer, "a very cautious person." Protectionism, adds Robert Bothwell, director of the international relations program at Trinity College, University of Toronto, "depends on the individual and the constituency and the issue."

The looming recession is likely to have its most severe impacts on the auto sector, where Canada needs to work out a common strategy with the new American government, Bothwell says. "We should at least try to have something to say on that question."

THE ENVIRONMENT

Both Obama and McCain promise tougher measures to control carbon emissions. Canada will have little choice but to follow suit, says Bothwell.

Obama is also keenly interested in renewable energy, which could hurt Alberta if the U.S. starts to rely less on oil from the Tar Sands. "[Vice-president Dick] Cheney visits the Tar Sands and sees beauty; if Obama visits the Tar Sands, he'll probably see monstrosity," Bothwell says.

On the other hand, a strong environmental agenda might be tough to implement in a volatile economy, particularly since Obama is already offering Americans a huge "menu of promises" ranging from health-care fixes to tax changes, says Hillmer.

Whether Obama or McCain triumph, Canada will likely face pressure from the U.S. to maintain its troop commitment and ignore its 2011 deadline for a military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"Obama is committed to winning the war in Afghanistan," Bothwell says. "A lot of Canadians haven't really twigged to this."

Other security files aren't likely to become irritants under the next presidency. For instance, both nations think their border security policy is working reasonably well "as long as there are no new atrocities" of the 9/11 variety, says Bothwell.

Arctic sovereignty, a priority for the Harper government, "has long been a slow-burning disagreement with successive U.S. administrations," writes Sears. It will eventually have to be settled at an international conference, Hillmer thinks. Obama, he notes, is an excellent negotiator.

POLITICAL RELATIONS

It's said Democrats get along better with Canadian Liberals, and Republicans work better with Conservatives. Think of Jean Chretien's friendship with Bill Clinton, or Brian Mulroney's chumminess with Ronald Reagan.

Few doubt Harper would work well with McCain, but it's also likely he'd have a constructive relationship with Obama.

"I don't see any reason why personally they can't get along well," says former U.S. diplomat Jones. "They're both intellectually sophisticated men with firm intellectual pedigrees."

Obama would have to catch up to McCain's knowledge of Canada, he adds. McCain has a daughter working in Toronto and knows the country a bit; Obama, in contrast, once referred to the "president" of Canada.

Won't Canadians worry about their government snuggling up to the American leader?

Not if it's Obama, Hillmer says. "The Obama effect will be like a warm bath over North American politics and Harper will, I'm sure, want to at least put a toe into that bathtub, and I suspect a good deal more than a toe."

http://www.winnipegsun.com/News/Canada/2008/11/01/7272656-sun.html

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