The Guardian October 29, 2008
Biocapacity
World is facing a natural resources crisis worse than financial crunch
Two planets need by 2030 at this rate, warns report
Humans using 30% more resources than sustainable
Juliette Jowit
The world is heading for an "ecological credit crunch" far worse than
the current financial crisis because humans are over-using the natural
resources of the planet, an international study warns today.
The Living Planet report calculates that humans are using 30% more
resources than the Earth can replenish each year, which is leading to
deforestation, degraded soils, polluted air and water, and dramatic
declines in numbers of fish and other species. As a result, we are
running up an ecological debt of $4tr (£2.5tr) to $4.5tr every year -
double the estimated losses made by the world's financial institutions
as a result of the credit crisis - say the report's authors, led by
the conservation group WWF, formerly the World Wildlife Fund. The
figure is based on a UN report which calculated the economic value of
services provided by ecosystems destroyed annually, such as diminished
rainfall for crops or reduced flood protection.
The problem is also getting worse as populations and consumption keep
growing faster than technology finds new ways of expanding what can be
produced from the natural world. This had led the report to predict
that by 2030, if nothing changes, mankind would need two planets to
sustain its lifestyle. "The recent downturn in the global economy is a
stark reminder of the consequences of living beyond our means," says
James Leape, WWF International's director general. "But the
possibility of financial recession pales in comparison to the looming
ecological credit crunch."
The report continues: "We have only one planet. Its capacity to
support a thriving diversity of species, humans included, is large but
fundamentally limited. When human demand on this capacity exceeds what
is available - when we surpass ecological limits - we erode the health
of the Earth's living systems. Ultimately this loss threatens human
well-being." Speaking yesterday in London, the report's authors also
called for politicians to mount a huge international response in line
with the multibillion-dollar rescue plan for the economy. "They now
need to turn their collective action to a far more pressing concern
and that's the survival of all life on planet Earth," said Chief Emeka
Anyaoku, the president of WWF International.
Sir David King, the British government's former chief scientific
adviser, said: "We all need to agree that there's a crisis of
understanding, that we're removing the planet's biodiverse resources
at a rate which is as fast if not faster than the world's last great
extinction."
At the heart of the Living Planet report is an index of the health of
the world's natural systems, produced by the Zoological Society of
London and based on 5,000 populations of more than 1,600 species, and
on an "ecological footprint" of human demands for goods and services.
For the first time the report also contains detailed information on
the "water footprint" of every country, and claims 50 countries are
already experiencing "moderate to severe water stress on a year-round
basis". It also shows that 27 countries are "importing" more than half
the water they consume - in the form of water used to produce goods
from wheat to cotton - including the UK, Switzerland, Austria, Norway
and the Netherlands.
Based on figures from 2005, the index indicates global biodiversity
has declined by nearly a third since 1970. Breakdowns of the overall
figure show the tropical species index fell by half and the temperate
index remained stable but at historically low levels. Divided up
another way, indices for terrestrial, freshwater and marine species,
and for tropical forests, drylands and grasslands all showed
significant declines. Of the main geographic regions, only the
Nearctic zone around the Arctic sea and covering much of North America
showed no overall change.
Over the same period the ecological footprint of the human population
has nearly doubled, says the report.
At that rate humans would need two planets to provide for their wants
in the 2030s, two decades earlier than the previous Living Planet
report forecast just two years ago. This figure is "conservative" as
it does not include the risk of a sudden shock or "feedback loop" such
as an acceleration of climate change, says the report. But it warns:
"The longer that overshoot persists, the greater the pressure on
ecological services, increasing the risk of ecosystem collapse, with
potentially permanent losses of productivity."
In the 1960s most countries lived within their ecological resources.
But the latest figures show that today three-quarters of the world's
population live in countries which consume more than they can
replenish.
Addressing concerns that national boundaries are an artificial way of
dividing up the world's resources, Leape says: "It's another way of
reminding ourselves we're living beyond our means."
The US and China account for more than two-fifths of the planet's
ecological footprint, with 21% each.
A person's footprint ranges vastly across the globe, from eight or
more "global hectares" (20 acres or more) for the biggest consumers in
the United Arab Emirates, the US, Kuwait and Denmark, to half a
hectare in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Afghanistan and
Malawi. The global average consumption was 2.7 hectares a person,
compared with a notional sustainable capacity of 2.1 hectares.
The UK, with an average footprint of about 5.5 hectares, ranks 15th in
the world, just below Uruguay and the Czech Republic, and ahead of
Finland and Belgium.
